ti 9/11 ka serangan Paris, ti Ebola ka ISIS, unggal kajadian global utama metot hiji alkana counter-naratif ti 'truthers', sababaraha jadi sadaya-ngawengku nu nyokot alih kahirupan masarakat. Nu brains urang kabel percaya, salaku buku anyar boga pamadegan? Jeung saperti bisa mikir sabenerna aya mangpaatna?
Artikel ieu judulna “bebeneran ieu rushing kaluar aya: naha conspiracies sumebar leuwih gancang batan kungsi” ieu ditulis ku David Shariatmadari, pikeun The Guardian dina Saptu 26th Désémber 2015 10.00 UTC
"Kuring inget maca ngeunaan Final Implengan VII, film mah bener néangan maju ka. réaksi awal ieu mah disappointment yén ieu dua taun jauh -. sabab ku mangka urang kukituna jadi dina kontrol militer "Ieu 2004, jeung Mateus Elliott di jero. Elliott, ti San Antonio, Texas, geus mimiti geus dicokot ka téori konspirasi lamun manéhna 19, di Sanggeus 9/11. "Eta seemed unfathomable urang bisa diserang,"Manéhna nyebutkeun ayeuna. Dina quest pikeun nyieun rasa naon anu kajadian manéhna datang di sakuliah nu notorious "truther" gerakan, a kiwari pamadegan nu ngaluarkeun ngalepatkeun pikeun atrocities di panto pamaréntah AS.
"Jalan Nu paling teori konspirasi nu diteundeun kaluar, hiji hal sok ngabalukarkeun sejen, jadi ti dinya mah jadi yakin yen group fatwa disebut New World Order orchestrated sagalana. Ieu sadaya bakal ngakibatkeun hukum silat jeung ngaleupaskeun lengkep kabebasan urang,"Manéhna nyebutkeun. A dékade saterusna, Elliott, ayeuna 34, nyaeta "recovering" konspirasi theorist, sanggeus ngancik deui dina worldview nu sok posits sababaraha covert, gaya kuat akting ngalawan kapentingan jalma biasa. parobahan datang saeutik demi saeutik, tapi manéhna nyangka pisan béda ayeuna. "Anjeun komo henteu bisa meunangkeun loba 50 nagara satuju dina hal. Good tuah ngayakinkeun Éropa jeung Asians pikeun meunangkeun dina papan. "
réaksi Elliott nepi ka trauma tina 9/11 ieu jauh ti mahiwal. Serangan éta jadi unprecedented, jadi dahsyat, loba urang Cut Nyak Dien nyieun rasa eta. laporan awal éta bingung atawa kontradiktif: salaku hasilna sababaraha dirawat versi resmi kajadian jeung skepticism. A saimbang maranéhanana dina turn plumped pikeun penjelasan nu bakal merlukeun fakery jeung koordinasi dina skala masif.
Ieu teu kudu kaget urang: éta pola anu terus-terusan sanggeus unggal shock global, sarta dina ceurik getih tina serangan Paris, geus reared sirah anak deui. Dina hiji poé serangan teroris dina ibukota Perancis, blog geus diterbitkeun arguing yén maranéhanana éta karya pamaréntah - a disebut "bendera palsu" operasi. Klaim beristirahat dina pamanggih nu ISIS nyaéta nyiptakeun ngahaja of pamaréntah kulon. More anyar, nu pengacara pikeun kulawarga Syed Farook, salah sahiji shooters San Bernardino, spekulasi conspiratorial ngalarti lamun cenah: "Aya loba motivasi dina waktu ieu ngantebkeun atawa nyieun insiden nu bakal ngabalukarkeun kontrol gun atawa prasangka atawa hatred ka arah masarakat Muslim."
sinyalna buleud-nu-jam kajadian global hartina aya supply tetep krisis jeung rusuh pikeun urang napsirkeun. Carita of string keur ditarik ku leungeun disumputkeun aya pokok hiburan urang, ti Spectre sacara Blofeld ka konspirasi Baroque tina London Spy, salah sahiji dramas British paling acclaimed taun, nu unraveled dina conto spektakuler tina gaya paranoid. Hayu urang teu kapercayaan di teori konspirasi ieu jadi leuwih nyebar, nyebutkeun virus Swami, profesor psikologi sosial di Anglia Ruskin universitas: bari panalungtikan tacan dipigawé can, manéhna ngabejaan kuring, aya kavling bukti anecdotal ka nunjukkeun yén kapercayaan di conspiracies geus tetep cukup stabil pikeun abad half-pamungkas atawa jadi. Naon geus robah, kumaha oge, nyaéta laju jeung nu téori anyar kabentuk. “It’s a symptom of a much more integrated world,"Manéhna nyebutkeun. internet speeds sagalana nepi, ngamungkinkeun individu konspirasi-dipikiran pikeun nyambung jeung dirumuskeun gagasan maranéhanana. Sabalikna, it took months for theories about Pearl Harbor to develop.
Karen Douglas, another social psychologist, echoes this point. “People’s communication patterns have changed quite a lot over the last few years. It’s just so much easier for people to get access to conspiracy information even if they have a little seed of doubt about an official story. It’s very easy to go online and find other people who feel the same way as you.”
Is everyone prone to this kind of thinking, or is it the preserve of an extreme fringe? Douglas reckons it’s more common than most of us realise. "Recent research has shown that about half of Americans believe at least one conspiracy theory," manéhna nyebutkeun. "Anjeun keur nempo jalma rata; urang Anjeun bisa datang di sakuliah di jalan. "
Éta ogé panempoan Rob Brotherton, saha buku anyar, pikiran curiga, explores nu Tret nu predispose urang kapercayaan di conspiracies. Manéhna cautions ngalawan linggih di judgment, saprak sakabéh urang boga pikiran curiga - jeung alesan alus. Ngidentipikasi pola jeung keur peka mungkin ancaman naon geus mantuan urang salamet di dunya mana alam mindeng kaluar pikeun meunangkeun Anjeun. "Buku teori konspirasi condong datang di ti point of view tina debunking eta. Kuring hayang nyokot pendekatan beda, ka sidestep sakabeh ngaluarkeun naha téori anu bener atawa palsu jeung datang di ti sudut pandang psikologi,"Manéhna nyebutkeun. "The intentionality bias, nu babandingan bias, confirmation bias. We have these quirks built into our minds that can lead us to believe weird things without realising that’s why we believe them.”
“Whenever anything ambiguous happens, we have this bias towards assuming that it was intended – that somebody planned it, that there was some kind of purpose or agency behind it, rather than thinking it was just an accident, or chaos, or an unintended consequence of something.” This intentionality bias, Brotherton says, can be detected from early childhood. “If you ask a young kid why somebody sneezed, the kid thinks that they did it on purpose, that the person must really enjoy sneezing. It’s only after about the age of four or five that we begin to learn that not everything that everybody does is intended. We’re able to override that automatic judgment. But research shows that it still stays with us even into adulthood.”
Salaku conto, studies have shown that when people drink alcohol, they are more likely to interpret ambiguous actions as having been deliberate. “So if you’re at the pub and somebody jostles you and spills your drink, if it’s your first drink, you might write it off as an innocent mistake. But if you’re a few drinks in, then you’re more likely to think they did it on purpose, that it was an aggressive act.”
Like most personality traits, proneness to intentionality bias varies across the population. “Some people are more susceptible to it than others.” And, Brotherton explains, there is a small but reliable correlation between that susceptibility and belief in conspiracy theories.
External factors also play a part, tangtosna. For Ryan, who asked that I omit his last name, the influence of a single charismatic individual was crucial. It was Johnny, a friend and bandmate, who showed him books and CDs about world government and “served as a guru of sorts”. At the same time as inducting him into the truther movement, “he was introducing me to music I’d never heard and really loved”. At the height of his involvement, Ryan says he believed a broad range of conspiracy theories, including “chemtrails” – the idea that the trails left by planes contain noxious chemicals intended to subdue or poison people; that Aids and Ebola were introduced by governments to control population; that the moon landings were faked; that a substance extracted from apricots called laetrile was an effective cure for cancer, but had been banned by the FDA and dismissed as quackery to protect the interests of Big Pharma. “I strained my relationships with my family badly. It’s always the ones you love the most that you want to ‘wake up’. I ended up in hugely embarrassing debates and arguments,"Manéhna nyebutkeun.
But beyond the anguish it caused for those close to him, were Ryan’s unorthodox beliefs harmful? Karen Douglas is wary of rubbishing all conspiracy theorising as dangerous. “Thinking in that way, it must have some positive consequences. If everybody went around just accepting what they were told by governments, officials, pharmaceutical companies, whoever, then we would be a bunch of sheep, really”. Di sisi anu sanésna, the effects of certain theories on behaviour can be damaging. Douglas’s own research [pdf download] has shown that exposure to the idea that the British government was involved in the death of Princess Diana reduced people’s intention to engage in politics. Sarupa, subjects who read a text stating that climate change was a hoax by scientists seeking funding were less likely to want to take action to reduce their carbon footprint. jeung anti-vaccine conspiracy narratives make people less likely to vaccinate their children, a clear public health risk.
Should we try to stamp conspiracy theories out, saterusna? Part of Brotherton’s argument is that they’re a natural consequence of the way our brains have evolved. Henteu ngan éta, but trying to disprove them can backfire. “Any time you start trying to debunk conspiracy theories, for the people who really believe, that’s exactly what they would expect if the conspiracy were real,"Manéhna nyebutkeun.
Swami sees things differently. “Experimental work that we’ve done shows that it’s possible to reduce conspiracist ideation.” How? Swami found that people who had been encouraged to think analytically during a verbal task were less likely to accept conspiracy theories afterwards. For him, this hints at an important potential role for education. “The best way is, at a societal level, to promote analytical thinking, to teach critical thinking skills.” But that’s not all. When people have faith in their representatives, understand what they are doing and trust that they are not corrupt, they are less likely to believe in coverups. That’s why political transparency ought to be bolstered wherever possible – and corporate transparency, oge. “A lot of people have trouble accepting a big organisation’s or government’s narratives of an event, because they’re seen as untrustworthy, they’re seen as liars,” argues Swami.
Improved teaching and changes in political and business culture would undoubtedly help. But conspiracy theories can be rejected for personal reasons, oge. Ryan’s view changed with loss of his “guru”.
“I kinda dropped out of contact with Johnny after he got married and had a baby,"Manéhna nyebutkeun. “He was getting further and further into it, and I just couldn’t keep up with the mental gymnastics involved.” He started to look for alternative explanations – less exciting, but more plausible ones. “I looked at the people debating on the national level, for the presidency and such. No way these guys speaking in platitudes and generalisations could really be behind a global conspiracy to enslave or kill me. They weren’t doing a particularly good job of it either, considering how happy I was living my life.
“That was the epiphany, nyaan. I was free. I was happy. None of the doom and gloom predicted and promised ever came.” For Ryan, by then 27, the bizarre ride was over. A world that pitted him against the forces of evil had all the appeal of a spy drama. But real life was less like a story – and in some ways more depressing. What does he think are the forces that really shape things? “Most of what is wrong in the world nowadays – well, I would put it down to incompetence and greed. A lack of compassion.”
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