Powered by Guardian.co.ukNo tsab xov xwm hu “Kua: koj yuav ua li cas tom qab qhov lub ntiaj teb no lub tuam txhab profitable tshaj?” tau sau yog Rupert Neate nyob New York, rau lub Observer rau hnub Saturday 31st September 2015 15.01 UTC

Thaum kua los ua lub tuam txhab profitable tshaj plaws hauv keeb kwm lub limtiam tag los, analysts muaj kog muaj lawv excitement.

"Stunning", "koj", "dab" tau ib co txiv analysts haum rau cov zauv uas qhia Silicon hav khov ua tau $18bn (£12bn) yog vim peb lub hlis – ntawm qhov muag 34,000 iPhones tau teev ntawm lub clock ntawm lub kaum hli ntuj mus rau hlis ntuj nqeg. Tam sim no tau $178bn nyiaj hauv txhab cia nyiaj.

Tab sis tom qab txhua lub commotion, cov lus nug uas pib. Rau lub khw uas tau rov qab los ntawm cov brink uas muaj ntaub ntawv bankruptcy los tsawg tshaj 20 xyoo dhau los, qhov xwm zoo yuav mus ntev npaum li cas? Nov yog rau (6) loj lus nug txojkev neeg ntiaj teb biggest neeg zoo.

Kev pab nyiaj, qhov no puas yog tus peak naj?

Yog kua 90 hnub tseg los ntawm cov ntaub ntawv bankruptcy los thaum hauj lwm Steve rejoined nws hauv 1997 – thaum nws tom ices – tiam sis kua nyhav tam sim no los downplay nws cov nyiaj txiag zoo ntej Tshajtawm nyiaj txhuab peb lub hlis kom thiaj surprise investors thiab analysts.

No lub quarter profits raug rau lwm nplai, ho. Muag khoom nyob rau hauv lub peb hlis mus xaus rau hlis ntuj nqeg tau tuaj 30% mus .6bn $74. Cov profits txog $18bn tau tuaj 37%.

Yog ceev tshaj txhuab peb lub hlis loj hlob txij thaum lub peb hlis ntuj 2012, tab sis, ces kua yog ib nrab ntawd luaj li cas tam sim no. Raws li lub kua Fas nyiaj xwm, Luca Maestri, Txawm hais tias: "Rau lub tuam txhab ntawm peb lub me me uas tsis yog ib tug me feat."

Katy Huberty, ib qho analyst tom Morgan Stanley, Txawm hais tias nws yog ib tug "ib lub quarter rau daim ntawv phau ntawv" thiab si nws qhia tawm nqe phiaj ntawm $126 mus $133, cim tias seb thaum nws ntseeg hais tias muaj ntau cov kev loj hlob tuaj yog. Tus shares, uas dhia ntawd 5% nyob rau hauv after-hours trading tom qab kua lub ntsiab, kaw tom $117 txog hnub Friday.

Kev loj xub tam sim no, hais tias Geoff Blaber, tsoom lwm-txoov ntawm kev tshawb fawb kom pom CCS, yuav kom paub sib taab tom ntej. "Western teb chaws Europe thiab America sab qaum teb yog qhov uas: muaj yig taab kua muaj los khi noj loj hlob los ntawm [Google tus] Hauv operating zog raws li,"nws hais. "Tus loj, loj, ua kom pom tseeb yog nyob Suav teb thiab ib tug twg lesser Is Nrias teb."

Analysts polled los Thomson Reuters mam them nyiaj cov kua hauv lub xyoo rau lub Cuaj hlis yuav cog 22%, tab sis kev loj hlob mus tau qeeb los 4% xyoo no.

Yog muaj ntau ntau tus neeg sab laug uas xav tau kev iPhone?

Kua muag ib teev 74.5m mobiles hauv lub quarter rau, 46% ntau tshaj nyob rau tib lub sij hawm ib xyoo dhau. "Thov rau iPhone lawm staggering, shattering peb ntshaw,"chief executive Tim Cook hais. "No volume yog ib qho nyuaj rau hauv."

Cov tes rau ob feem peb ntawm cov nyiaj lub kua accounted, thiab yeej muaj nqis tshaj Microsoft thiab Google tus tseeb txhuab peb lub hlis muag tag nrho.

"Rau nkawd li lub ntiaj teb tseem xav ib iPhone,"Steven Milunovich, ib qho analyst ntawm UBS, sau tau rau hauv ib lub ceeb toom kom investors, taw kom paub tias cov kev pab muaj uas cog noob tes ntau heev tshaj dua tab sis kua tsis tau ua lawv yoo ces txog thaum nyuam qhuav.

Txawm li cas los, Toni Sacconaghi, ib qho analyst ntawm kev tshawb Bernstein, cautions, kua txoj kev loj hlob kuj yuav tsum reliant heev rau ntawm cov khoom muag xya xyoo. "Tus thawj koom ruam rau cov kua yog qhia tus thawj koom ruam rau qhov iPhone,"Sacconaghi hais tias. "Qhov xwm zoo yog, Cov poj iPhones. Cov xov xwm phem yog, txoj cai tam sim no uas yog tus tsav tsheb lawm 100% ntawm cov nyiaj kev loj hlob ntawm lub tuam txhab."

Tus neeg suav buys ob tug tshiab iPhone 6s.
Tus neeg suav buys ob tug tshiab iPhone 6s. Yees duab: Johannes Eisele/AFP/Getty dluab

Tseem ceeb npaum li cas yog Tuam Tshoj?

Heev: iPhone muag khoom yeej exploding nyob hauv lub teb chaws. Kua overtook tsim kom muaj qhov chaw Xiaomi ua tus Tuam Tshoj biggest smartphone muag khoom hauv lub lub quarter kawg. Suav muag khoom, uas muaj tau tsis muaj zog rau cov kua kom txog rau thaum nws txiav txim qhov tseeb loj-npo tes, tuaj nyob .1bn $16, pem 70% nyob rau lub xyoo-thaum twg nws kuj tsis muaj ib deal muab nws saib rau Xov Tshoj txawb lub xam pom tias nws 760 lab subscribers.

Cov nyiaj tau los nyob rau hauv Suav teb no sai tuag rau qhov nyiaj siv rau tas nrho cov teb chaws Europe, qhov muag tau $17 .2bn, pem 20%.

"Kuv twb muaj [nyob rau hauv Suav teb] yog tom qab lub community launch lub kaum hli ntuj, thiab cov excitement ncig lub iPhone 6 thiab 6 Ntxiv [yog] zoo kawg li kiag li,"Ua noj hais tias thaum nws hu nrog analysts. "Koj yuav paub tias peb nyob nraum believer loj nyob rau Suav teb."

Kua yeej npaj siab ob npaug rau tus nab npawb ntawm cov khw muag khoom noj nyob rau teb chaws suav los ntau dua 40 yog thaum-2016. "Nws yog ib qho lag luam zoo kawg,"nws hais. "Neeg hlub kua tshuaj. Thiab peb yeej yuav ua qhov zoo tshaj plaws peb pab cov khw."

Tsuas ib xyoo dhau, lub kaum hli ntuj 2013, Kua txawm tsis muaj tus 6 smartphone txiag rau Xov Tshoj, trailing Xiaomi, Huawei, Lenovo, Samsung thiab Yulong, raws li kev tshawb fawb ruaj Canalys.

"Qhov no yog ib qho amazing ntog, given tias nruab nrab nqi ntawm lub kua handsets yog ze li ntawm ob npaug ntawm nws cov competitors ze cov,"Canalys hais tias. "Thaum suav smartphone cov neeg muag khoom yog sai nkag mus rau hauv pem teb chaw lwm qhov, Kua muaj muab tus ntxhuav rau hauv lawv lub tsev lag luam."

Nws puas muaj nyiaj tau lub Apple Watch los tsis?

Txij xyoo tsib kua launched qhov tseeb tiag tshiab khoom – cov iPad – nyob rau hauv 2010. Nyob rau lub npe rau innovation, thiab diversify cov nyiaj tau los ntawm tsis tag rau cov iPhone, Kua xav tau lub Apple Watch tau tus zoo unqualified.

Ua noj tshaj tawm tias cov saib yuav mus muag rau hnub tim, muab rau cov tuam txhab ib boost hauv nws lub quarter thib peb thaum nws yuav tsis tau los Christmas los yog cov Suav lub xyoo tshiab, uas yuav pab ob tug lej yav dhau los. "Peb nyob nraum ua kev kawm tau zoo nyob rau hauv txoj kev loj hlob ntawm nws,"nws hais.

Kua piav rau cov khoom uas tshiab – tias cov iWatch, Txawm hais tias nws twb tsis tau teb hu ua – li cov "tej feem ntaus ntawv puas" thiab nws hais tias nws muaj peev xwm saib xyuas nws tus wearer kho mob li no mus rau ib qho iPhone muab ob peb lwm zog. Ua noj hais app developers muaj twb Vaj kub siab heev nws nrog "tej innovation zoo kawg".

Carolina Milanesi nyob Kantar Worldpanel ComTech hais tias tus saib yuav pab tau kua cuag cov muag khoom rau lub lag luam wider npaum li cas. "Lawv tau ntse heev nyob hauv nws thawb ua jewellery thiab tsim es cas technologically smart nws yog,"nws hais. "Nws yog ywm ntau rau impressing tus tsim thiab zam ntiaj teb dua lub tech bloggers.

"Kuv xav tias qhov no yuav muaj irrational ntau npaum li cas muas dua nrog ib iPad. Muaj ib tug iPad koj xav ib iPad: qhov no yuav muaj ntau dua ib tug kev cai zam."

Nws txawm hais tias lub community launch yuav tau los lub zam thiab li cas rau kev txawj Angela Ahrendts, tus qub Burberry thawj kua ntiav xyoo kawg ntawm ib $73m them nws li nws lub taub hau ntawm lub khw muag khoom.

Kua poached txoj saw loj npe los ntawm kev zam thiab tsim koom nws pab neeg saib, suav Patrick Pruniaux, qub ELACRights tsoom txoov kev muag khoom hauv lossis Heuer thiab qub Yves neeg dawb huv Laurent boss Paul Deneve, tam sim no leej twg lub kua "vice president ntawm tshwjxeeb" no.

Tim Cook unveils lub Apple Watch hauv California tsaib no.
Tim Cook unveils lub Apple Watch hauv California tsaib no. Yees duab: Zuma/Rex

Muaj Tim Cook emerged ntawm tus duab ntxoov ntxoo Steve hauj lwm?

Ob peb chief executives tau li intimately txuas nrog cov tuam txhab uas muag li hauj lwm yog nrog kua, thiab ua noj muag ib tug tsov rog tawv los yeej tau lawm investors uas ntshai nws Corporate cov pa roj carbon monoxide-founder cov tsis pom kev thiab showmanship.

Activist investors David Einhorn thiab Carl Icahn twb sim los txuam nrog rau cov tswj kev ua noj, tab sis nws twb sawv nws hauv pem teb. Nws yog tseem muaj li nws sab steely los axing Scott Forstall, taub hau ntawm nws cov iOS no mobile operating system qub, hla lub community launch failed ntawm cov kua Maps app, as Well as hloov lub taub hau ntawm lub tuam txhab lub khw muag khoom noj, John Browett – tus qub Dixons thawj-tom qab uas tsawg tshaj li ib xyoo hauv cov hauj lwm.

Thiab yuav ua noj yog "tej personalities sib txawv", hais Milanesi, leej twg tau taug kua rau ntau tshaj ib xyoo caum. "Tus txais tos qab ua noj nws kuj zoo heev: Nws yog impressive haujlwm thiab tswj cov khoom cia."

Milanesi hais tias ua noj tau kuj ua heev ua tau kua zoo ib yam li ib hom ntau siabzoo. "Cov hauj lwm uas nws tau aspirational tab sis dog dig untouchable thiab deb,"nws hais. "No mas, dua qhib thiab puas siv tau nyob rau hauv hawm, yog tseem ceeb raws li lawv xav kom mus cuag tau ntau yam khoom rau ib sab ntawm cov kev pab dav.

"Nws xeem loj yuav tau lub Apple Watch, Thaum tus thawj khoom mus ua launched nyob rau hauv nws coj."

Cov kua nyiaj ntsuab lossis loj pawg yuav yog tus txhaum?

Kua tabtom nyiaj ntau ntau dua nws thiaj siv, rau cov neeg uas nws ua tau li $178bn nyiaj ntsuab pawg. Nws ntxiv $23bn rau cov coffers hauv lub xeem lub quarter thiab yuav luag tag nrho yog banked txawv tebchaw. Nqa rov qab mus rau Teb Chaws Asmeskas kom koj rov qab mus shareholders yuav raug ib daim nqi se loj.

Rau appease investors kua muaj tau muas shares rov tom qab, tiam sis yog qiv tiv thaiv tsis tau cov nyiaj es tsis siv lub. Nws yuav rov tom qab $45bn ntawm shares tsaib no tiam sis tsis tau ua ib hmlos npaum ntawm qhov nyiaj ntsuab. Nws tau $35bn cov nqi.

Blaber hais kua siv technology uas pab kom tswj tau ib seem loj muab nws "cov nqaij thiab yooj los sib piv cov nqi rau cov kab tshiab". Tab sis qhov tseeb thiab biggest tshaaj – Dr Dre headphones thiab streaming lag luam neeg ntaus Electronics – kim nws $3bn.

Cov kua nyiaj tuav qhov luaj li cas muaj attracted cov xim ntawm cov politicians. Ua noj tau hais Congress lub tuam txhab yuav nws thiaj li coj nws rov qab onshore, tab sis, thaum muaj ib tug "ua txoj simplification ntawm cov nyiaj ua se tau neeg txoj" nrog rau ib "tsim nyog ua se nyob rau txawv teb chaws koj tau txais nyiaj uas tso cai rau cov ndlwg ntawm peev rov qab mus rau Teb Chaws Asmeskas dawb".

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