saka 9/11 kanggo serangan Paris, saka Ebola kanggo Isis, saben acara global utama nengsemake cocog counter-narasi saka 'truthers', sawetara supaya kabeh-nyakup sing padha njupuk liwat wong urip. Apa pemikiran kita nganggo kabel pracaya, minangka buku anyar udur? Lan kuwi bisa mikir bener migunani?
"Aku elinga maca babagan Final Fantasy VII, film aku iki pancene looking nerusake kanggo. reaksi dhisikan iki kuciwo sing ana loro taun adoh -. amarga banjur kita ngene dadi ngisor karo "Iku 2004, lan Matius Elliott ana ing jero. Elliott, San Antonio, Texas, kang pisanan wis digambar kanggo teori komplotan nalika piyambakipun 19, ing akibat saka 9/11. "Iku ketoke jero kita bisa nyerang,"Kang ngandika dina. Ing nggoleki kanggo nggawe raos apa kang kedaden kang teka tengen jahat "truther" gerakan, saiki mratelakake panemume, sing nyeleh nyalahke kanggo atrocities ing lawang saka pamaréntah AS.
"Cara paling teori konspirasi sing glethakaken metu, siji bab tansah nuntun liyane, supaya saka ana aku dadi yakin, yen grup ngatur disebut New World Order orchestra kabeh. Iki kabeh bakal mimpin kanggo tukang pencak hukum lan lengkap aman saka kabebasan-kabebasan kita,"Kang ngandika. A dasawarsa mengko, Elliott, saiki 34, punika "mbalek" kongkalikong, Teori, Duwe diuripake maneh marang ing Kadhaton sing tansah posits sawetara covert, kuat pasukan tumindak marang kapentingan wong biasa. Pangowahan teka mboko sithik, nanging wong mikiraken banget beda saiki. "Sampeyan bisa malah njaluk akeh ing 50 negara setuju iku. Good luck mestekake Éropah lan Asia kanggo njaluk ing Papan. "
reaksi Elliott kang kanggo ing trauma saka 9/11 adoh saka mboten umum. Serangan padha supaya unprecedented, dampak gedhé, sing akeh kita berjuang kanggo nggawe pangertèn mau. laporan awal padha bingung utawa mbantah: minangka asil sawetara dianggep versi resmi acara karo skepticism. A babagan sing siji plumped kanggo panjelasan sing bakal mbutuhake fakery lan sesambungan ing ukuran massive.
Iki ora kudu surprise kita: iku pola sing bola sawise saben kejut global, lan ing akibat saka serangan Paris, wis dipunasta sirah maneh. Ing dina saka serangan teroris ing ibukutha Perancis, blog wis diterbitake alesan sing padha karya pemerintah - supaya disebut-"flag palsu" operasi. Ing claims ngaso ing idea sing Isis punika nitahaken disengojo saka Pamaréntahan Kulon. liyane mentas, pengacara kanggo kulawarga Syed Farook, salah siji saka tembak San Bernardino, speculation conspiratorial bek nalika ngandika: "Ana sing akèh motivasi ing wektu iki kanggo nandheske utawa nggawe kedadosan sing bakal nimbulaké kontrol gun utawa serat utawa gething menyang masyarakat Muslim."
jangkoan Round-the-jam acara global tegese ana sumber pancet krisis lan lam kanggo kita kokwaca. Stories senar kang ditarik dening tangan didhelikake sing pokok saka hiburan, saka Spectre kang Blofeld kanggo konspirasi barok saka London Spy, salah siji saka dramas British paling diakoni taun, kang unraveled ing tuladha biasa saka gaya paranoid. Iku ora yakin ing teori konspirasi wis dadi liyane nyebar, ngandika virus Swami, profesor psikologi sosial ing Inggris Ruskin universitas: nalika riset durung rampung durung, piyambakipun dhateng kula, ana persil saka bukti anecdotal kanggo suggest sing yakin ing konspirasi-konspirasi kang tetep nyedhaki stabil kanggo abad setengah pungkasan utawa supaya. Apa wis diganti, Nanging, kacepetan karo kang teori anyar sing kawangun. "Iku gejala saka donya luwih terpadu,"Kang ngandika. internet kecepatan kabeh munggah, saéngga individu kongkalikong-minded kanggo nyambung lan ngramu gagasan. ing kontras, njupuk sasi kanggo teori bab Pearl Harbor kanggo berkembang.
Karen Douglas, ahli ilmu jiwa sosial liyane, mantul titik iki. "Pola komunikasi Rakyat wis diganti cukup akèh liwat sawetara taun pungkasan. Iku mung dadi luwih gampang kanggo wong kanggo njaluk akses menyang informasi kongkalikong sanajan padha wiji sethitik saka mangu bab crita resmi. Iku gampang banget kanggo nyambung online lan golek wong liya sing aran cara sing. "
Saben wong rawan kanggo jenis iki saka pikiran, utawa iku ngreksa saka pinggir nemen? Douglas reckons iku luwih umum saka paling kita éling. "Riset anyar ditampilake sing setengah saka Amerika pracaya ing paling siji teori komplotan,"Dheweke ngandika. "Sampeyan lagi looking ing wong saben; wong sing bisa teka tengen ing werna. "
Sing uga tampilan Rob Brotherton, kang buku anyar, Minds curiga, nylidiki sipat sing predispose kita yakin ing konspirasi-konspirasi. Panjenenganipun kersané marang lungguh ing paukuman, wiwit kabeh padha duwe pikiran curiga - lan apik Alasan. Ngenali pola lan kang sensitif bisa ancaman kang wis mbantu kita urip ing donya ing ngendi alam asring metu kanggo njaluk sampeyan. "Buku teori Conspiracy kathah teka ing saka titik tampilan saka debunking wong. Aku wanted kanggo njupuk pendekatan beda, kanggo sidestep kabèh Jeksa Agung bisa ngetokake saka apa teori sing bener utawa palsu lan teka ing saka perspektif psikologi,"Kang ngandika. "The intentionality Bias, ing proportionality Bias, Bias konfirmasi. We kudu quirks iki dibangun menyang pikiran kita sing bisa mimpin kita pracaya iku aneh tanpa sadhar pramila kita ngandel. "
"Kapan apa ambigu mengkono, kita kudu bias iki menyang assuming sing iki dimaksudaké - sing piyantun ngrancang, sing ana sawetara jenis waé utawa agensi konco iku, tinimbang mikir iku mung sing Laka, utawa lam, utawa akibat unintended soko. "Bias intentionality iki, Brotherton ngandika, bisa dideteksi saka PAUD. "Yen sampeyan takon bocah enom kok piyantun wahing, bocah mikiraken sing padha kasebut waé, sing wong kudu seneng tenan wahing. It’s only after about the age of four or five that we begin to learn that not everything that everybody does is intended. We’re able to override that automatic judgment. But research shows that it still stays with us even into adulthood.”
Contone, studies have shown that when people drink alcohol, they are more likely to interpret ambiguous actions as having been deliberate. “So if you’re at the pub and somebody jostles you and spills your drink, if it’s your first drink, you might write it off as an innocent mistake. But if you’re a few drinks in, then you’re more likely to think they did it on purpose, that it was an aggressive act.”
Like most personality traits, proneness to intentionality bias varies across the population. “Some people are more susceptible to it than others.” And, Brotherton explains, there is a small but reliable correlation between that susceptibility and belief in conspiracy theories.
External factors also play a part, mesthi. For Ryan, who asked that I omit his last name, the influence of a single charismatic individual was crucial. It was Johnny, a friend and bandmate, who showed him books and CDs about world government and “served as a guru of sorts”. At the same time as inducting him into the truther movement, “he was introducing me to music I’d never heard and really loved”. At the height of his involvement, Ryan says he believed a broad range of conspiracy theories, including “chemtrails” – the idea that the trails left by planes contain noxious chemicals intended to subdue or poison people; that Aids and Ebola were introduced by governments to control population; that the moon landings were faked; that a substance extracted from apricots called laetrile was an effective cure for cancer, but had been banned by the FDA and dismissed as quackery to protect the interests of Big Pharma. “I strained my relationships with my family badly. It’s always the ones you love the most that you want to ‘wake up’. I ended up in hugely embarrassing debates and arguments,"Kang ngandika.
But beyond the anguish it caused for those close to him, were Ryan’s unorthodox beliefs harmful? Karen Douglas is wary of rubbishing all conspiracy theorising as dangerous. “Thinking in that way, it must have some positive consequences. If everybody went around just accepting what they were told by governments, officials, pharmaceutical companies, whoever, then we would be a bunch of sheep, really”. Ing tangan liyane, the effects of certain theories on behaviour can be damaging. Douglas’s own research [pdf download] has shown that exposure to the idea that the British government was involved in the death of Princess Diana reduced people’s intention to engage in politics. Similarly, subjects who read a text stating that climate change was a hoax by scientists seeking funding were less likely to want to take action to reduce their carbon footprint. Lan anti-vaccine conspiracy narratives make people less likely to vaccinate their children, a clear public health risk.
Should we try to stamp conspiracy theories out, banjur? Part of Brotherton’s argument is that they’re a natural consequence of the way our brains have evolved. Ora mung sing, but trying to disprove them can backfire. “Any time you start trying to debunk conspiracy theories, for the people who really believe, that’s exactly what they would expect if the conspiracy were real,"Kang ngandika.
Swami sees things differently. “Experimental work that we’ve done shows that it’s possible to reduce conspiracist ideation.” How? Swami found that people who had been encouraged to think analytically during a verbal task were less likely to accept conspiracy theories afterwards. For him, this hints at an important potential role for education. “The best way is, at a societal level, to promote analytical thinking, to teach critical thinking skills.” But that’s not all. When people have faith in their representatives, understand what they are doing and trust that they are not corrupt, they are less likely to believe in coverups. That’s why political transparency ought to be bolstered wherever possible – and corporate transparency, banget. “A lot of people have trouble accepting a big organisation’s or government’s narratives of an event, because they’re seen as untrustworthy, they’re seen as liars,” argues Swami.
Improved teaching and changes in political and business culture would undoubtedly help. But conspiracy theories can be rejected for personal reasons, banget. Ryan’s view changed with loss of his “guru”.
“I kinda dropped out of contact with Johnny after he got married and had a baby,"Kang ngandika. “He was getting further and further into it, and I just couldn’t keep up with the mental gymnastics involved.” He started to look for alternative explanations – less exciting, but more plausible ones. “I looked at the people debating on the national level, for the presidency and such. No way these guys speaking in platitudes and generalisations could really be behind a global conspiracy to enslave or kill me. They weren’t doing a particularly good job of it either, considering how happy I was living my life.
“That was the epiphany, tenan. I was free. I was happy. None of the doom and gloom predicted and promised ever came.” For Ryan, by then 27, the bizarre ride was over. A world that pitted him against the forces of evil had all the appeal of a spy drama. But real life was less like a story – and in some ways more depressing. What does he think are the forces that really shape things? “Most of what is wrong in the world nowadays – well, I would put it down to incompetence and greed. A lack of compassion.”
guardian.co.uk © Guardian News & Media Limited 2010