Dobrodošli u Robot-based radne snage

Welcome to The Robot-Based Workforce

Od waitstaff brinuti drugovi i pravnih istraživače, budućnost radnika stroja ovdje. No, gdje to ostaviti ljude


Pokreće Guardian.co.ukOvaj članak pod naslovom “Dobro došli u robota-based radne snage: će svoj posao postati automatski previše?” je napisao Julia Carrie Wong u San Franciscu, The Observer je u subotu 19. ožujka 2016 14.24 UTC

"To je čista magija,"Eatsa obećanja.

Na prvi potpuno automatizirani restoran u San Franciscu, Jela se pojavljuju u malim staklenim cubbies, samo 90 sekundi nakon što kupci naručiti i platiti na zidnim iPadu. To je ljudsko-manje iskustva - nema waitstaff, nema blagajnik, nitko ne bi dobili svoj red u redu i nitko do vrha.

To je također salon trik.

Trenutak prije nego što se jelo, ekranski izbornik vidjeti-kroz koje fronte su Cubbies ide crna za nekoliko sekundi kada bi ugledati ruku koja vas hrani.

Eatsa još nije postignut ukupni automatizaciju. Tvrtka priznaje zapošljava mali kuhinjsko osoblje, a jedan radnik je prisutan u ispred kuće, odgovarajući na pitanja o tome kako naručiti i dodging pitanja o tome što se događa iza zida magičnih cubbies. ("Što god zamislite,", On je zadirkuje.)

No, restoran, koji je otvoren u kolovozu, a već je proširen u Los Angeles, nudi uvid u brzim približava stvarnosti, gdje se cijele kategorije poslova koje su nekad ekskluzivno područje ljudi može postići brže, jeftinije, i pouzdanije od strojeva.

Budućnost je ovdje, i ničiji posao nije siguran.

Strojevi na poslu

"Vidim masovne nezaposlenosti na horizontu kao robotika revolucija traje čekanje,", Rekao je Noel Sharkey, profesor emeritus robotike i umjetne inteligencije na Sveučilištu u Sheffieldu u Velikoj Britaniji. Sharkey je nedavno pokrenuo zakladu za odgovorno robotiku kako bi nam pomogli izbjeći "moguće društvene i etičke opasnosti" iz raširenom primjenom autonomnih robota.

Nema ništa posebno novo o alarma Sharkey je sondiranje. U 2013, Oxford znanstvenici Carl Benedikt Frey i Michael Osborne upozorio da je oko 47% ukupne američke zaposlenosti bio u opasnosti informatizacije, u analizi koja je rangirana 702 zanimanja po svojoj prilici da bude eliminiran.

Telemarketers, računovođe, sportski suci, pravni suradnici, i blagajnama Utvrđeno je da su među najviše vjerojatno da će ostati bez posla, dok su liječnici, odgojitelji, odvjetnici, umjetnika, i kler ostao relativno sigurno.

U Budućnost zanimanja, objavljeno u 2015, autori Richard Susskind i njegov sin, Daniel Susskind, tvrdio je da će čak i one tradicionalne profesije smanjivati ​​i zamijenit će ga "sve koji mogu sustava".

Kupac koristi iPada na mjesto i platiti za njegov red na Eatsa, potpuno automatizirani restoran u San Franciscu.
Kupac koristi iPada na mjesto i platiti za njegov red na Eatsa, potpuno automatizirani restoran u San Franciscu. Fotografirati: Ramin Talaie za Observer

U Susskinds više ne treba koristiti futur. Prošlog ljeta je pokrenut pravni alat pomoć zove ROSS, which uses IBM’s artificially intelligent super-computer Watson to take over the work of legal research.

ROSS Intelligence co-founder and CEO Andrew Arruda argues that the tool, which can perform work that once took hours in a matter of seconds, is not a threat to jobs since major law firms stopped billing for hours spent on research during the Great Recession. He also said that ROSS would “increase access to justice” by making legal representation more accessible for the 80% of Americans who cannot afford it.

Još, ROSS is doing work that humans were once paid top dollar to perform.

On Tuesday, the Financial Times reported on an analysis by Deloitte that found that the UK had already lost 31,000 jobs in the legal sector to automation, and projected that another 114,000 jobs would be next.

It’s all happening very fast. U 2013, MIT engineering professor John Leonard told the MIT Technology Review that “robots simply replacing humans” would not happen in his lifetime. “The semi-autonomous taxi will still have a driver,” he argued. Danas, Google’s autonomous cars have traveled more than 1m miles on public streets, and self-driving taxis seem all but inevitable.

Sharkey expects that the service industry will be particularly hard hit. He estimates that by 2018 there will be 35 million service robots “at work”.

Computerized cubbies at Eatsa, San Francisko.
Computerized cubbies at Eatsa, San Francisko. Fotografirati: Ramin Talaie za Observer

A bartending robot named “Monsieur” is already on the market. A hardware store in San Jose, California has a retail associate robot named “Oshbot.” The UK salad bar chain Tossed reportedly announced this month that two outlets in London would have self-service kiosks instead of cashiers. U četvrtak, Domino’s Australia unveiled a pizza delivery robot in Brisbane.

Some companies seem sensitive to the criticism that they might be taking away people’s jobs.

U četvrtak, Bloomberg reported that Google is selling Boston Dynamics, the inventor of frighteningly agile robots that it acquired in 2013.

“There’s excitement from the tech press, but we’re also starting to see some negative threads about it being terrifying, ready to take humans’ jobs,” wrote one Google employee in internal emails obtained by Bloomberg.

Micah Green, the founder of Maidbot, a company building robots to clean hotel rooms, emphasizes that “at this stage” the company’s products are “an augmentation, not replacement” of housekeepers.

Other inventors make no bones about their job-replacing intentions.

Just a few miles away from Eatsa another San Francisco startup, Momentum Machines, is building robots that could replace the minions behind the curtain. U 2012, the company debuted a fully automated hamburger making machine, and its website boasts that it has moved on to salads, sandwiches, and “many other multi-ingredient foods”.

“Our device isn’t meant to make employees more efficient,” co-founder Alexandros Vardakostas told Xconomy. “It’s meant to completely obviate them.”

Mabu, the robot friend

U 2014, Stowe Boyd, a self-described post-futurist, threw down the gauntlet. “The central question of 2025 will be: What are people for in a world that does not need their labor, and where only a minority are needed to guide the ‘bot-based economy?’” he asked in a Pew Research Center report.

The answer may lie in the kinds of activities that are frequently unpaid: care work traditionally assigned to women. Computers and robots may be better than humans at manual labor, paperwork, and even logic, but they do not feel, and they cannot empathize.

Barem, not really.

In a basement office in San Francisco’s Dogpatch neighborhood, Dr Cory Kidd is building a robot whose sole job is to motivate its owners into positive behavioral changes.

Mabu is a desk lamp-sized robot who carries a touchpad on her belly. As a “personal healthcare companion”, she is intended for patients managing chronic diseases. With wide green eyes and pale yellow skin, she could be one of the personified feelings in the Pixar movie Inside Out. And feelings are what she is all about.

For a robot, Mabu doesn’t do anything particularly impressive. She just sits on your bedside table, waking up once or twice a day to hold a conversation with her owner.

Cory Kidd, CEO and founder of Catalia Health, pictured with Mabu.
Cory Kidd, CEO and founder of Catalia Health, pictured with Mabu. Fotografirati: Ramin Talaie za Observer

Those conversations, designed with input from behavioral psychologists and a former Hollywood screenwriter and made possible by artificial intelligence that helps Mabu adapt to an individual’s personality and interests, are intended to “leverage the patient’s own motivation” to follow their treatment plans.

 

Mabu is subtly female in voice and in appearance, a choice Kidd says is based on research that, stereotypically, “women are seen as more helpful and caring”.

Does Mabu care for us? She is plastic, but when Kidd tells her that he does not feel that great, she responds, “You’re carrying a lot on your shoulders,” and dips her head in a gesture that izgled like empathy.

Do we care for Mabu? Kidd says that when he has collected her from patients after trials, many have objected. “They say, ‘She’s like a member of the family.’”

She can provide a certain kind of emotional and psychological support that humans might not be able to accomplish effectively. Imagine your partner asking you every single day whether you have taken your pill, and then imagine how long they would remain your partner. (This is why Kidd says, “we’re not replacing any human. I can’t think of a person who would be a healthcare companion.”)

But if Mabu can be better at being human than humans can, what is left for us?

Perhaps only the bearing and rearing of new humans. This is where Noel Sharkey draws the line. U 2008, Sharkey published The Ethical Frontiers of Robotics in the journal Znanost, a paper in which he warned against the development of “child-minding robots” already taking place in Japan and South Korea.

Sharkey has continued to study developments in the field of nanny robots, including some that are already available, such as the “Childcare Robot PaPeRo” from Japan’s Nippon Electric Company (NEC).

“We have already seen the overuse of robots in looking after children,” Sharkey says. “From our detailed analysis of the possibility of long term care of children by robots, we can expect a number of severe attachment disorders that could reap havoc in our society.”

It’s all of our job to prevent that.

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